I know that people, much like myself, are still trying to figure out facebook. The more I visit the website, I learn how to use it more effectively. The information on that website is just incredible. Whatever you’re looking for in terms of information, you can pretty much find on facebook.

What people do is they create profiles and their friends can see their quotes or information or articles they post on the website. There are also pictures you can upload, games you can play and the advertising is very conveniently on the left hand side and there isn’t too much of it so it’s great in that regard. There’s no annoying ads that pop up.

Now I want to advertise my facebook profile in this post because I see that it makes for a very easy way for any of the buyers or sellers I work with, to get information I find on the internet about mortgage rates, housing inventory on Long Island, updates to the financial markets that impact housing, and on and on.

This way, if you join me on facebook, you’ll be able to simply visit my profile and get this information whenever you want. And it’s really good information that I don’t post on my website. This is information on other websites that I share on my profile page.

As an example, I just posted something titled, Interest Rate Forecasting in a Volatile Market, written by Dean Hartman, Chief Planning Officer of a major local Mortgage Bank. It’s on my profile and it’s a very good read about mortgage rates.

Now if you’re a buyer, I’m just recommending that you sign up for my email newsletter and join me on facebook. To me, it just makes sense because I honestly work hard to provide current information on the market that will help you through the buying process. And if you’re a seller, it’s the same reason, only the information will help you price your home right or decide whether selling is right for you or not.

My facebook profile is just a platform to acquire free information from various sources. I also started using it more with family and friends (when I started my profile I only used it for professional reasons, but finding some old friends from college and even grade school has been very interesting, I must admit).

So please, consider joining me on facebook and I look forward to providing you useful information about the Long Island real estate market.

I want to leave you with something that one of my seller clients said to me recently, which gave me the idea to promote my facebook profile more. He said, “I joined your facebook and I read the article from Long Island Business News and I would have never seen that anywhere else because it’s just not something I look for, but on your facebook, I then started reading about the real estate market, it’s great.”

Well that’s all I needed to hear. Sometimes a website is just too much. My facebook profile is simple and I can put a lot of resources on there from other sites. So it’s a whole lot in one place.

I look forward to having you as a friend on facebook!

Long Island home prices have declined over the past four years now. It almost doesn’t seem real. Four years is a long time. And I think that it’s starting to finally impact every homeowner out there. We’re all feeling the effects of this unbelievable market. From Montauk into Manhattan, this “downstate”, Long Island real estate market has felt the burst of the bubble.

So when is this going to end?!

In December 09’s, The State of the Long Island Real Estate Market, I dove head first into a very accurate picture of where the market was headed. And overall, there were some promising numbers. Across Long Island, there was much less devastation to the market in terms of declining prices.

But as I look at the market for what it is, I see a few things.

First, there are so many homes that have been on the market for a long time. The same homes, not selling, month after month, year after year.

Secondly, I see a ridiculous amount of homes expire off the market (they don’t sell) and what these homeowners are simply doing are waiting for the exact moment (along with all the others like them) to put their home back on the market. This cycle will perpetuate one thing and that is waves of increased demand, which will not fair well for Long Island home prices.

The evidence will be in the numbers.

The following are statistics for February, 2010, followed by a graph of the overall market. I want to point out the numbers in paragraph form to emphasis the disturbing reality of the Long Island Real Estate market. In Suffolk county there were 11,767 homes for sale and 555 sales. 8,351 homes were available in Nassau, with 538 sales. In Queens county, 9,057 were available in February and 451 sales.

The total available inventory for Long Island was 29,175 residential units available for sale. The total number sold was 1,544.

Let’s pause for a moment and look at circumstances. February,2010 closings are an indication of December, 2009 inventory that went into contract (remember a home goes into contract, but it takes 1 to 2 months to close normally). Traditionally, home contracts decline in winter months. So the dip in homes sold doesn’t surprise me all that much.

However with mortgage rates so low, it is somewhat disappointing. With rates at historic lows and motivated sellers on the market in winter months, I would figure that a smart buyer would be out looking for a deal. That clearly wasn’t the case. I’ve given up trying to figure out home buyers in this market.

Moving forward, I’d like to take one zone randomly and demonstrate on a somewhat local level, how inventory (supply) far exceeds demand (buyers). In zone 21, which makes up a number of towns along the south shore of Long Island, there were 3,156 homes for sale. Only 134 of those homes sold. Less than 5% of the homes available are selling. That means less than 1 in 10 homes are selling in that zone, and that’s about the same for all the rest of Long Island.

Now let’s compare February 2010 with Last year’s numbers in the same month.

What we see is a stark decline in sales. But overall, the homes available are down nearly 10 percent. That’s the good part.

When we look at the numbers from December, 2009 though, we see the phenomenon I mentioned earlier, the cycle of homeowners waiting to put their homes back on the market. It’s a cycle we’re going to see throughout 2010 and into 2011. The same homeowners not selling in one time period, wait to put their home back on the market later down the road.

To prove this point, in December of 2009, there were 28,479 homes for sale. And in February of 2010, you can see there were 29,175 for sale. The problem here is obvious, demand has declined and inventory has increased. When that happens to any product, from sneakers to cheeseburgers to cars and to houses, economics 101 teaches us that prices of that product must go down in order to sell.

Now the fluctuations in real estate can come extremely quickly. For instance, I’m going to say that by the end of April of this year, we’re going to see a great increase in buyer demand. Which would indicate a “stabilizing of prices”. Why do I put that in quotes? Because it’s a stabilizing of prices for homes that are priced right.

The same people who have their homes priced ridiculously out of the market are a nonentity. Buyers are not going to buy those homes. The “stabilizing” of prices will be in that 5% to 15% of homes that are priced correctly and the competition between buyers for these select homes will be incredible.

I will leave you with this bit of insight. I recently had a home hit the market for $580,000. I had an open house recently during the first week it was on the market. There were over 100 people at the open house. The home sold in less than 7 days. I received over 10 offers and the home sold for more than asking price.

There are buyers for every price range. They’re just waiting for you to list with the right agent who can consult you on accurate pricing and market the home effectively to sell. Hint…his number is 631-831-9048.

(c) Copyright, 2010 www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

Years from now, we will all look back at this time in history and say, “Remember when mortgage interest rates were below 6%?”. And I said it, yes ‘below 6%’. The luxury of thinking that 6% is a high interest rate will be gone soon enough. And believe me, I wish this party could last forever. But there’s specific reasons the rate has been so low and if you haven’t read about those reasons, click here.

Unfortunately, it’s coming time for the federal government to make some tough choices. Those choices include pulling out of the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) market as planned.

With this pull out, there are multiple repurcussions. In order to better understand what happened just yesterday to the market and what’s going to happen, check out Morgage News Daily’s article about the mortgage interest rates.

Without getting too technical, please keep in mind that demand for something will keep prices high. When demand falls for something - the value of that something must go down in price. This is basic economics.

In order to assist you in reading that article at Mortgage News Daily, skipping to the bottom and reading the last paragraphs will put things in perspective. Now without having to understand the dynamics, all you need to know, as a home buyer or seller, is that when Treasury yields go up and bond selling increases, this causes mortgage interest rates to rise.

We’ll have to take a wait and see approach (as always) but it just seems like this recession and this “looming” feeling of the unknown has been going on for so long. That’s just my opinion. One thing is for sure, if you’re a home buyer (and I feel redundant in saying this), the mortgage interest rates are low now…don’t wait anymore!

Call me and lets get started on an aggressive home search campaign - 631-831-9048.

(c) Copyright 2010 www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

This video article is going to showcase foreclosure information on Long Island, specifically foreclosure shadow inventory. Some previous articles that may help you understand what’s in this newest article are A Closer Look At The Impact Of Foreclosures In 2010 and How Many Homes Are In Foreclosure In Suffolk County.

This video is going to talk specifically about why it is a good time to sell your home if you’re considering making a move, despite the down market. The foreclosure shadow inventory (foreclosed homes that are yet to hit the market) is going to be staggering in 2010 and as we move into 2011.

(c) Copyright 2010 www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

In this past week’s edition of the Long Island Business News (LIBN), there was an article entitled “Builders unprepared for stiffer lead paint regulations” by Michael H. Samuels. The article featured some key insights about continued and increased stressors placed on an already burdened industry - real estate construction and our world in general.

I’m going to start by bulleting a few points from the article. Then I’m going to give my opinion about the overall picture that it paints. For the record, I’m one of those “wackos” that believe the Federal government should spend less time in two places - our lives and our pockets.

So here’s some points the article made:

1. New Federal Regulations (what else is new) requiring contractors to follow guidelines while doing renovations where lead paint is present.
2. The Environmental Protection Agency ordered these rules (micro management of our lives at the “orders” of an overly funded Bureaucracy attempting to “protect” the “innocent victims” of our society…aka destroy as much commerce as possible and put as many businesses and people out of work so they don’t catch a cold, scrape a finger or…have the ability to feed their family - yes that’s right - I said it!). You can click here to read what the EPA says about lead paint.
3. In adults, lead paint can cause miscarriages, hypertension and digestive problems according to the EPA.
4. There were guidelines in place that contractors use anyway when dealing with renovations involving lead paint - another words, when you rehab a home that was built before 1978 (homes built before 1978 stand a very good chance of having lead paint on the walls of the home) the workers wear protective masks and goggles - simple.
5. It’s estimated that 80 million homes throughout the United States have lead paint in them
6. Lead paint was outlawed in 1978.
7. New regulations go into effect as of April 22, 2010 and require all workers at a work site to be certified at a cost of $225 per person to take a class.
8. High Efficiency Particulate Air Vacuum Cleaners must be used, built by HEPA manufacturers, which can’t keep up with demand…meaning there are contractors out there, that are certified but can’t get one of these “High Efficiency” Particulate Air Vacuums.
9. There aren’t enough trainings available to accomodate all the 235,000 or more firms affected by these rules of this federal bureaucracy
10. As of April 22nd, 2010, the EPA can begin fining contractors $37,500 per incident.

Okay so let’s get right to what I think because that’s what’s most important to me:

1. I believe the EPA should make recommendations…not requirements (especially in the midst of a financial meltdown of our country) on any state and for that matter I believe no federal agency should make a requirement upon any state whatsoever. Let the individual states decide on anything that impacts it financially or has any affect on the liberties of its residents. Period.

2. I do understand the need for any government to implement rules to protect people from environmental hazards like lead paint and give businesses guidelines to help it protect their staff, but I strongly disagree that a federal agency should have the right to implement rules against states, their companies and their workers that reside there.

3. The big picture isn’t that there shouldn’t be regulations to help businesses protect their workers and the general public, but to have this insanity imposed against an industry with a deadline right smack dab in the midst of a financial crisis where unemployment is over 17% (the real number - and on Long Island it’s over 7%) and to boot, not have enough trainings offered around the country to accomodate workers and also have manufactures unable to produce the “necessary” (mandatory) equipment to meet demand…….is insane.

4. People need to feed their families. Businesses need to be able to operate so that workers can have a job. The trickle down effect of businesses not being able to make a profit will lead to this republic’s demise. And specifically if construction contractors can’t work because of some stupid machine they can’t get and or their employees can’t get trained, then people can’t feed their families! This is dangerous territory.

5. We need people in our governmental offices that have common sense. Period. These regulations are just another example of a government imposing restrictions and adding cost burdens on businesses at a time when the impact can and probably will be financially crushing to families. Read it.

I’m just at a loss. I read articles like this all the time and I get sick to my stomach. We need jobs. People are hurting and we’ve got towns like Hempstead that have hurt job creation by blocking Charles Wang from developing that hell hole surrounding the embarrassing Nassau Coliseum. That’s just another example of local government being infiltrated by bureaucrats who think like the idiots on C-SPAN (yes - US Congressman and Senators).

People need to work. Period. Businesses need less regulation and less taxes so they can hire more people so that these people can work. I tell you what - go ask someone who’s unemployed right now and has a family to feed. You ask them if the EPA is helping them put food on their child’s plate. You ask them if they think the EPA should impose these demands on a hurting industry or whether he or she would be willing to just throw on a mask and goggles and work on a home their boss has financed so their business can make a profit and the workers can get paid.

Go ahead, ask them. In about a month (April 22nd - the $37,500 per day fine starts), they’ll be plenty of unemployed construction workers…but at least they won’t be “at risk” of lead-paint-related illnesses…they’ll just lose their home and not be able to feed their family. Yeah…that’s what they want.

(c) Copyright, 2010 www.tommcgiveron.com

By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

Many people are talking about Long Island home values and asking when they are going to start going up again. Time and time again I speak with homeowners who ask about when home values are going to go up. From where I sit, the more important question is what’s keeping the market from taking a double dip down.

Now I have to explain what I do on a weekly basis. I receive “BPO orders”, or Broker Price Opinions, which are like appraisals done by real estate agents. These are orders from the banks or loan servicing companies for various reasons, but mostly, they are ordered because a home mortgage is in default. The purpose of the BPO is to help the bank get a basic understanding of the value range of the subject property.

Now getting back to Long Island home values, I am completing nearly 50 BPO orders a month and I know other agents and companies do 50 a day. That’s a lot of homes in trouble.

With a closer look at the short sale and foreclosure numbers on Long Island, it’s easy to guess that over 2 in 10 homes is either a short sale or bank-owned property. This doesn’t mold well for home values here on Long Island.

So what’s keeping the “double dip away”?

In order for Long Island home values to be supported and stable, it’s important that the mortgage interest rates remain low. With the rates being historically low, this has helped Long Island homes to remain competitive with the overall economic conditions.

Let’s face it, Long Island has high taxes and the cost of living still exceeds most of the country. So when homeowners ask me about home values on Long Island going up, I try and tell them that if they are going to want to sell within the next 5 years, they should be focused on selling now, rather than waiting for home values to start “going up”.

Another reason why Long Island home values haven’t experienced a double dip downward is because of the home buyer tax credit extension and addtition to second home buyers. The tax credit offered to home buyers is definitely giving a much needed shot in the arm to the market, as buyers scramble to take advantage of a very good dollar for dollar tax credit.

What happens after April 30th, 2010 (after the tax credit expires)?

What happens depends a lot on what happens to the mortgage rates, which most likely will go up after March!

If the market witnesses the end of the tax credit in combination with hikes in the mortgage interest rates, this might very well lend itself to another significant decline in the values of homes on Long Island (and throughout the state and country).

(c) Copyright 2010, www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

In this article I will discuss short sales and why a buyer agent is necessary. For any transaction, as a Buyer’s Agent I am responsible for drawing up a purchase binder, presenting the offer effectively, and prompting acceptance of a good offer. With short sales, there’s more to a buyer’s agent than just these basic qualities.

First of all, as your buyers agent, I will be helping you sift through listings, separating the good opportunities from the “time-wasters”. Many buyers I speak with do a lot of research on their own on websites like zillow.com or other general real estate informational website, but zillow cannot examine a short sale listing and determine if it’s a good deal or not.

And there’s something to be said about the fact that the price, in certain respects, has very little to do with whether a short sale is a “good deal” or not.

What do I mean by that? Well just because a home is listed as a short sale and is priced a lot less than surrounding homes in the area, that doesn’t mean it’s a good deal. How is that possible?

There is such a thing where a real estate agent could list a home too low and actually jeopardize the entire transaction. How so?

A short sale is not a give away. The sellers bank will order an appraisal and a broker price opinion. These are reports which analyze the value of property. A seller who is trying to sell their property for less than what they owe puts the bank in a curious situation. The bank must determine that the sale is legitimate.

When agents price a short sale listing too low, what will happen is the buyers will spend a lot of time waiting for the bank to make a decision, while all along, the deal has no chance of going through because the asking price of the home was too low to begin with.

Result? Rejection! And start over from scratch.

You don’t want to be in this situation and that’s where an expert in short sales can make the difference.

In order for a short sale to have wings and fly, you also have to know what values are in the area. Come in too high with your offering price and your appraisal could come in short. On the flip side, come in too low and you’ll spend all that time waiting for the bank response, only to be disappointed at the result when the seller’s bank rejects your offer or counters too high.

And you can’t get current comparables to know where a property’s value stands on zillow or some other outdated, out-of-area national website. A good local real estate agent who understands values in a given area is necessary.

Better yet, having a buyers agent who completes broker price opinions (BPO’s), like myself, be there guiding you on what short sales are good ones and which aren’t and how much to offer exactly, will ultimately make the process of buying a short sale, much more efficient than going out there on your own, being left to make mistake after mistake.

Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at 631-831-9048. If you are behind on your mortgage and have questions about your options to avoid foreclosure, you can email me here.

(c) Copyright 2010 www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

I have been waiting to get more information on the new short sales changes April 2010. According to HAFA, Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives, the new Short Sale Process will be crucially important in 2010.

The Treasury department has released new rules to help simplify the “short sale” process, which isn’t “short” at all. For months, the real estate community has been preparing these new changes. The purpose of HAFA guidelines is much like other failed attempts at helping the real estate industry - one is to have less foreclosures in 2010 and two, get the real estate market back in the appreciation mode.

The key short sales changes appear to be the following:

Mortgage servicers have 10 days to accept or deny a short sale request. After a sale is completed, the borrower could be completely released from debt.
Borrowers are eligible to receive a $1,500 moving allowance, if they sell their home through a short sale.
Mortgage servicers will receive $1,000 for each completed short sale.
Investors who hold first mortgages can get as much as $1,000 for allowing second lienholders to release their liens.
Second lienholders can get only as much as $3,000 in proceeds from short sale to release their liens.
The property must be the homeowner’s principal residence.
The homeowner is delinquent on the mortgage or default looks likely.
The loan was made before Jan. 1 this year and is less than $729,750
The borrowers’ total monthly mortgage payment exceeds 31 percent of their before-tax income.

The following changes only apply to banks that took TARP money (Troubled Asset Relief Program). Because they took TARP funds, the treasury will be requiring these banks to follow these new guidelines.

I will continue to update information on these short sale changes as they become more definite.

Should you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at 631-831-9048. If you are behind on your mortgage and have questions about your options to avoid foreclosure, you can email me here.

(c) Copyright 2010 www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, LSA

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