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Talk is cheap. Talk is what you hear from people who don’t know what they’re talking about. Does that make sense?

I’ve recently read several articles about Long Island housing numbers and the articles themselves contain data, but with no real point. That’s annoying. If I were a homeowner considering the sale of my home, I would be…annoyed.

No one wants to go out on a limb or take the time to really look at the numbers and then make a statement that will actually help people. I read a “mishmosh” of detailed data in an article by one prominent news outlet and by the time I got done reading, I realized that the article had no point.

Data – no point.

So that’s not going to happen here. I’m going to provide information and then I will cover the “I Ching” of what’s at the root of this Long Island market. To many of my loyal readers, you already know this but it’s with a twist.

The BIG Picture

Right now the buzz among any real estate agent who’s paying at least a little attention to housing data is, “We can’t compare year-to-date statistics from 2010 to 2011 because of the home buyer tax credit that was available last year.” That’s great. Even part-time sub-par agents can understand that.

But what’s behind that statement? That’s the important piece that no one is looking at and I’m hearing prominent names in real estate talk about that and then the conversation stops. What good does that do? Homeowners need more information.

So let’s take a look at a timeline. Let’s look past 2010 and see how the Long Island market is fairing overall (this is a key point lost in other related articles in news outlets and online).

The “blue mountains”, as I like to call them, are listings that were added to the market along the same time that the smaller “off-white hills”, represent homes put into contract during the same time. Since 2006, if you looked at the peaks and troughs of the “off-white hills”, you’ll notice that the homes put into contract are pretty constant, meaning, they don’t fluctuate all that much.

Sure there are dips like in 2007 and 2008 into 2009, but overall, we as real estate agents and owners, have worked together to keep the market moving at a fairly consistent pace. In English, this means that the sales volume, doesn’t change all that much.

What does change is the amount of homes for sale (inventory). This is a key point that cannot be overlooked. What’s throwing off this market is this idea that there are “no buyers”.

I’ll admit, being human and being a real estate agent, I have said “once or twice” that the market is “slow”. That’s when I’m not, personally, selling my listings or helping buyers buy. It’s those months that go by where I’m not personally generating revenue for the business I run. However, overall, the ebb and flow of the market, particularly, sales, continues to move along.

Let’s take a closer look at that 2010 spike in sales volume.

From the chart it’s pretty obvious that the home buyer tax credit really spiked under contract volume. However, with that, take a look at the thin dark-blue line hovering way above the yellow line. To keep it simple: Blue Line = Homes Added To The Market For Sale = Increased Inventory.

The “market” is made up of homeowners or investors. People hear or see that homes “are selling” so they want to get in on the action. It’s the flock mentality – birds of a feather…

So what we are left with is the ebb and flow of a free market, where people are allowed to sell when they want to and as more people sell, more people try to sell. But those that sell their home are much different from those that “try to sell”.

The “try-ers” overprice (and agents allow them to) and the sellers price their home to sell. Indeed, meeting the market demands hurts. However, in the long-run, those that have sold prior to now and have moved on are much better off then those that have not. Those that do not sell within the next few months will be selling at the absolute bottom of the market.

Long Island’s Greatest Challenge Moving Forward

So we see from the above charts that the Long Island market sells at a rate of about 2100 homes per month (on average). That’s not going to change much.

When we talk about Long Island, time and time again, I have talked about supply and demand. This is Long Island’s great challenge and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

Why? Because the people that didn’t sell in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, and now in 2011, they will want to sell within the next few years. Despite their stubborn stature and proclamation that “I’m not going to give my house away“, they will either need to sell or want so badly to sell, that they will have to. Thus, the graph below will remain constant.

When you’re talking about over thirty-two-thousand homes for sale, in a market where only 2,500 are scooped up by buyers in the same month – month after month after month – you’re in a completely saturated market. And here, I’m just going to give the link to my latest article on the Long Island Distressed Inventory but you must read that and put these two pieces of information together.

We are in the worst real estate market in generations. This is not the 1990′s. I don’t care what you hear on the news, it’s not a “bad” market. And it’s not the “worst” market because there’s no buyers. The Long Island housing market is just another market, but if you are trying to sell and you are overpricing your home, that’s what makes it worse. It’s the “worst” because there are 32,466 homes for sale and 30,000 of those homes are overpriced.

Bottom Line

What also adds to the “worst” effect is foreclosures and short sales. Long Island homeowners are going to be feeling the impact of a slow recovery out of massive amounts of distressed property inventory for years to come. If you read the article on distressed homes (link above) then you know what I’m talking about. If you didn’t read it, then do so after you’ve finished here.

A point I want to make about all this information: The economy will change. People will go back to work and times will change. The flow of the market will follow what changes come about. For now though, at least for the next 6 to 12 months, inventory of homes for sale will not drop significantly enough to make a difference.

Home prices will need to continue declining and after the hottest time of the year for real estate is over (Spring – yes right now), prices in July are going to drop like a rock in water. July is hot and people want to party, not look at homes. Yes we’ll have the families that want to buy because they want their child to get enrolled in the new school district, but that number is not great enough to move the July market. August will be even worse for getting homes into contract.

That’s the point. Add up the pieces of the puzzle and from me, your loyal and honest real estate agent/blogger, remember you heard it hear first – the full story, not just numbers and data and percentages that don’t mean anything. I’m laying it out there for you to decide whether or not May and June of 2011 is your time to price right and sell…or not.

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If you’re looking for Long Island housing data by zip code, this is the best information you’re going to get on the internet.

This report breaks down the number of homes sold in each individual zip code in Queens, Nassau and Suffolk counties.

A few things to keep in mind, comparing April 2010 to April 2011 (a year over year comparison) is the standard by which any industry measures data. However, last year, the home buyer tax credit was available to buyers and home sellers who sold and bought a home.

So, the numbers in this report are considerably less.

Housing Data Zip Code April 2011

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Many buyers are holding off on purchasing a home for many different reasons. Could be due to gas prices increasing dramatically in the past few months. It could also be a result of just general concern about the economic times (i.e high unemployment, state budgets).

And the real estate professionals and the field in general keeps saying, “it’s a great time to buy”.

I think back in 2008, real estate people were saying the same thing, but that’s when the tax credit was available and rates had dropped significantly.

So is now the time to really buy?

The truth is, it’s really never a “bad time” to buy real estate or any investment, as long as you negotiate good terms and a good fair price at the time of purchase.

Real estate is a long-term investment. So buying a home anywhere within the decline curve (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, ?) at extremely low interest rates, isn’t a “bad time” to buy.

However, if there was one piece of information out there that would have me raising an eyebrow (especially as a seller) it would be the shadow inventory numbers that New York (and specifically), Long Island is facing. Being one of the slowest states to foreclose on homes, Long Island has managed to produce a very sizable inventory of pent up distressed homes.

S&P Shadow Inventory Report

Long Island is “in the red”, when it comes to our shadow inventory.

What we’re faced with is over 120 months of distressed property. That’s 10 years.

Shadow inventory are homes that are not yet on the market for sale, but will be at some point. Of course not every home that is “distressed” currently is going to foreclose. However, the volume of Long Island homes that are (a) underwater (meaning a home is worth less than what is owed on the mortgage) and (b) owned by people who aren’t paying their mortgage, is astronomical.

States like California and Nevada have worked through a large portion of this inventory, expediting foreclosures, short sales and getting new owners on these properties, thus getting rid of all the distressed homes.

The terms “months of supply” simply means the amount of months, at the current pace of sales, it would take to sell all of this inventory.

10 years.

For buyers now, this may be something I would want to keep an eye on. Will prices drop another 30%? Most indications are they will not, however, this distressed real estate market could drag on the real estate values on Long Island for the next 2 to 3 years.

I’m just providing information. I do have an opinion and it’s this: don’t over-analyze your future home needs. I put my money where my mouth is and I purchased my personal residence in the last 2 years. It’s a great time to buy. But don’t plan on selling in the next 3 years. That would make no sense.

If your plan is to buy and live in your home for 5 to 8 years, then don’t hesitate. Stop waiting. Move on from the paralysis of analysis you find yourself in now. If you have solid employment, good credit and can afford a home, buy one. That’s my opinion.

Bottom Line

The purpose of this article (and my others) is to just provide information so you have it. I always like to keep things straight between me and my readers. Will Long Island have a foreclosure mess on its hands in the future? From information like this, it certainly looks that way. Should that prevent you from buying a home (or one of these troubled homes)? Absolutely not.

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I usually get asked all the time by relatives or friends, “So Tom, how’s the market doing?” When I start talking, they stop listening usually and follow up with whatever I say with, “There’s no buyers.”

To quickly counteract this mode of thinking, I want to make sure that people know that homes are selling. It’s just the homes that are priced right are the ones that are selling. Long Island Housing Data By Zip Code April 2011

I want to stress that the April 2011 numbers are not good when we compare them to April 2010, however, it is not a fair comparison given that last year, the home buyer tax credit was available to buyers and that certainly had an impact on home sales. So those April 2010 numbers need to be adjusted to reflect that big difference.

Of course, gas prices are much higher now than they were last year at this time so I would assume that the “fuel factor” is playing a part in why the volume of home sales in April is dragging.

But sticking with my point. I cannot sit back idly while people tell me that there’s “no buyers”. There clearly is a buying market out there.

National Numbers

Approximately 14,000 homes sold yesterday nationwide. Of course that’s an average, but that’s what sells, on average, everyday in America. There are buyers out there.

And when we start to look at pending home sales, it’s very clear that a “wave” is building, as the graph shows pending sales slowly and steadily rising.

So to all those that like to say, “There’s no buyers out there”, I say to you that there are home buyers out there. In every news story you read, there’s always information behind the headlines that will give you the full picture. And while Long Island seems to have had a very poor buyer turn out in April, the numbers still demonstrate homes are being bought. There are buyers out there!

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By: Andrea Nordstrom Caughey

Choosing patio paving materials begins with a decision about what kind of base to install. The base—the material that supports the pavers—must be firm, strong, and designed to stand up to years of foot traffic and weather.

The options include, sand, gravel, and concrete. Sand and gravel perform equally well, and cost about the same to install. Both sand and gravel bases are relatively easy do-it-yourself projects.

Both sand and gravel bases feature “dry set” paver installations—the paving materials are set in place, and then fine sand is swept into the joints between the materials to secure them. Every two or three years, fresh sand must be swept into the joints to replace sand that’s settled out, and pavers that have become loose must be reset. Expect to pay $2 to $3 per sq. ft. for a DIY job, and $3 to $5 per sq. ft. for a professional installation of the base alone.

A concrete base offers greater longevity and stability, with less potential for settling. On a concrete base, the paving materials are set permanently with mortar, and ongoing maintenance is minimal. Expect to pay $5 to $8 per sq. ft. for a professionally installed concrete base.

Brick
Brick pavers offer warmth and the possibility of intricate patterns. Thinner than typical “builder bricks” used on home siding, they’re formulated to hold up under heavy foot traffic. Brick pavers come in a variety of shapes, sizes, colors, and finishes, and can look old or new. Because they’re often smaller than other paver sizes, installation costs can be higher. Depending on budget, they can be installed in sand, granite, or over concrete.

Brick pavers: $14 to $20 per sq. ft., professionally installed.

Concrete
Concrete is now available in numerous finishes (brushed, acid washed, scored, and stamped) and many hues. Its long lifespan and relatively inexpensive installation make it a popular choice. “For colder climates, consider adding $1 to $2 per sq. ft. for a specialized base preparation and concrete additive,” says Chris Fenmore, principal with Garden Studio Landscape Design.

Stamped concrete can add a pattern to your patio, simulating slate, brick, or stone, but also adds an additional installation expense of $1.50 to $2 per sq. ft. and can be prone to cracking. Concrete can also be scored to create patterns or borders.

Concrete: $6 to $12 per sq. ft., depending on finish and color.

Concrete pavers
Concrete pavers come in countless shapes and sizes, and can be fashioned to look like real stone. Unlike other materials, the concrete is molded, not cut, making them more cost effective, uniform, and stronger than many natural paver varieties. They’re readily available at home improvement centers and are well-suited to DIY patio projects.

Interlocking pavers, a variation of concrete pavers, have gained popularity in recent years for their relative affordability, minimal maintenance, and quick installation.

Concrete pavers: $13 to $20 per sq. ft.

Interlocking pavers: $15 to $20 per sq. ft., $20 to $35 installed.

Stone, slate, & marble
Although almost any stone can work as a paver, cost and practicality typically focus on sandstone, limestone, slate, and granite. The materials you select can be especially cost-efficient if they come from locally operated quarries; check your local stone supplier before looking at national home improvement chains. Avoid coating stones with sealers that will peel or chip over time.

Sandstone, slate, granite: $17 to $28 per sq. ft., professionally installed

Decomposed granite and pebble surfaces
Decomposed granite is comprised of very small pieces of granite, ranging in size from ¼-inch to the consistency of sand. Although an affordable option, decomposed granite patios may need to be replenished periodically as the surface can erode with time, presenting higher maintenance costs. This application may be a poor choice in climates with lots of rain and snow.

“Budget $1 per sq. ft. for maintenance costs every two to three years,” suggests David McCullough, landscape architect and ASLA board member. Also, decomposed granite isn’t solid and furniture legs may sink into the surface. Adding stabilizers that help bind particles together can strengthen the surface.

Decomposed granite and pebble surfaces: $1.50 per sq. ft. without stabilizers, $2 with stabilizers

Recycled materials
Recycling hardscape materials, such as cast-off concrete sections from a neighbor’s old driveway or sidewalk, is a cost-effective and eco-friendly alternative to new materials. Check nearby construction sites for old materials (and be sure to ask permission before hauling anything away).

Although the materials are usually free, you’ll need to enlist helpers and the use of a pick-up truck to transport everything to your patio site. Expect to save $500 to $800 on a standard 12×12-foot patio versus newly purchased pavers, and you’ll be building a one-of-a-kind creation. Look for materials that provide uniform thickness.

Mixing materials
Combining different materials—such as brick and concrete, or stone and rock trim, can create an interesting and customized feel. “Too much hardscape can be tedious,” notes Southern California designer Chris Fenmore. “I often like to use four-inch troughs separating masonry from concrete that can be filled with gravel, beach rocks, or ground cover. They provide a bit of relief from the hardscape and nice detail, adding to the custom look of the yard.”

Keeping maintenance low
Most paving options, with the exception of decomposed granite or gravel, require little maintenance. The key is a solid foundation, installation experts say. A poorly built base can cause your patio to become uneven and the stones or concrete to crack. “If your backyard is especially uneven, it may be easier to add a few steps than to level everything out,” advises McCullough.

“Be sure your paving product can withstand weather conditions in your area,” notes S. Penny Triplett, a real estate and appraisal expert with Pissocra Mathias Realty in Ohio. Also, because some minimal cracking may occur over time, especially around paver joints, “consider purchasing 10% more of the product you install, including grouting in the chosen color, in case you need to make repairs,” says Fenmore.

Andrea Nordstrom Caughey has been writing about home and garden stories as a magazine and newspaper editor and reporter for more than 20 years. Her specialty is outdoor living topics, including patios, decks, and garden structures. A Northwestern University Medill School of Journalism graduate, Andrea lives in a coastal cottage that she enjoys upgrading with low-maintenance, weather-hardy improvements.

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