If you’re sick and tired of reading about how bad things are in the Long Island housing market, then don’t read this article. Nice way to start an article huh?

Well at least you can say I warned you.

In all seriousness though, this isn’t all that bad, but it’s not necessarily all that good either. We’re kind of where we were a year ago, when it comes to 2 main points:

1. Homes For Sale
2. Homes Sold

Housing Inventory: September 2011

What the numbers are telling us is that we are in the same position as we were last year (and pretty much the year before that). High inventory of homes and significantly less sales volume. Which brings us to the “Months of Inventory”. This tells us, at the current rate of sales, how long it would take to clear out every single home on the market for sale currently.

So it would take about 15 months to sell off 33,737 homes. It’s just a statistic that gives professional real estate agents, the pulse of the market. It’s a slow pulse.

Housing Inventory: September 2010

Well in 2010, as you can see from the graph above, we (Long Island) were in the same position.

The Bottom Line

What do you do with this information? Well you take into account who is providing it to you in this medium. You might think to yourself, “maybe I should meet with Tom McGiveron, since he seems to take his craft very seriously, as evidenced by his website which he has been writing for, for over 4 years now…yeah, maybe I should call him to see about selling my home…”

Yes that’s what you’re thinking right now…(631)881-5959.

:)

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It’s interesting to find out what’s really happened to the real estate market in the aftermath of the housing market crash. When you see some of the absolutely amazing statistics, it will really blow your mind.

3 Amazing (hard-to-fathom) Things About The Real Estate Market

According to National Association of Realtors (NAR):

1. In 2006, the aggregate home owners’ real estate equity was $13,000,000,000,000 (Trillion). In 2011, that equity stands at $6,100,000,000,000 ($6.1 Trillion).

2. That equates to an $82,000 drop in home equity for every household in America.

3. While that’s all bad and despite that amazing hit to home owner wallets, the Federal Reserve data shows that the net worth of the typical home owner is $190,000 whereas renters have $4000. So, homeowners are wealthier than the average renter, by 47.5 times.

Bottom Line

Home ownership is still the American dream and it is what will propel the next wave of wealth in the world, as people who buy homes now, see their home equity go up over the next 5 to 10 years. People are going to become very wealthy in the next decade – thanks to good old fashioned – home ownership!

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There’s no secret that Long Island has its share of challenges when it comes to real estate values. Most homeowners know that there are “a lot” of foreclosures and short sales and homeowners are hurting. Perhaps you know a neighbor, family member or a friend that can’t make the mortgage payment? However, I’m not so sure how much the average homeowner knows about the Long Island distressed market. This article will try and bring you up to date.

74,000 Unresolved Foreclosure Cases on Long Island

In my previous article, Long Island Distressed Housing Report July 2011, I pointed out the fact that we’ve got a big challenge ahead when it comes to working through the foreclosure mess here on Long Island. So we have the number, but what does it mean?

Let’s look at how slow New York is in processing homeowner’s loans in default and what the consequences are with letting people live in their homes for extended periods of time without paying their mortgage.

The “judicial” states, where a court is in charge of processing the legalities of foreclosure, are all on the left side of the graph. New York is sixth on the list of the highest count of first-lien mortgages in default. With over 5.5% of the mortgages in default in New York, we are faced with over 100,000 homes in foreclosure and over 250,000 that are behind on mortgage payments.

What Does This Mean To Long Island Homeowners

First, as these foreclosures or short sales come to market, they will be competition for “normal” homes for sale. What this means is, the buyer pool for homes that are not distressed (perhaps your home), will shrink, as many of these first-time buyers look to buy homes at a 40% discount.

Secondly, as more of these distressed homes come to market for sale and ruin their local neighborhoods by being boarded up, lacking a manicured landscape, and worse of all, attracting thieves who vandalize or vagrants who occupy the home illegally, the value of homes in these areas, will lose value. Let’s reiterate that point.

Appraisal Values

If you own a home and in the last 90 days, 43 homes have sold and 9 of these homes are foreclosure sales, that’s a 20.9% share of the market or 1 in 5 homes. And let’s say that 7 of these sales in the last 90 days were short sales, a 16.3% share of the market. The average sale price of a foreclosure is about 40% below the “normal” market and short sales range between ten to twenty percent of the normal (non-distressed) home value.

As an appraiser, he/she will make note of these sales and because of the rate of these sales, they will have to incorporate at least one of the distressed sales, as they make up over 1/3 of the sales. It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to realize that this is not good for home values. When an appraiser uses one of these sales the appraisal of your home, it will impact the value significantly.

Bottom Line: What About Selling Now

Because of the delays in the foreclosures being processed here on Long Island (due to robo-signing and other lender/owner challenges to title issues), right now, there is a lag of these distressed homes on the market. That said, as time progresses and the courts begin processing these foreclosure cases again at a 2500 per month basis…home values are going to drop on Long Island.

The good news is, right now, today – September 23, 2011, values are remaining stable but very fragile. If you are considering a move, I can start explaining the benefits of selling now, just to capitalize on the extremely low rates, but for the purposes of this article, I’ll stick to the main point – there’s is (and has been for 8 months) a lag in the processing of foreclosures so if you want to sell anytime soon (within the next 2 years), now is a fantastic time to do it. Otherwise, you may see your home value, in an appraisal, drop like a rock.

Hopefully, you use this information in a positive way and call me so we can get started (631)881-5959.

[Note To Home Buyers: Real estate is a long-term investment. I bought my personal residence in June of 2008 fulling knowing that the value would go down. I plan to own this home for many years, both as a home to live in (now and for the next several years) and in the future (hold on to it and rent it). I have a low interest rate and I love where I live. For the past 3 years, I have had the benefit of a Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction, I've paid down my principal and most importantly, my wife and I have loved every minute of living in our home. So if you read this and don't think it's a great time to buy now - you are missing the point of home ownership and all of its benefits. Lastly, the average net worth of a renter is less than $5,000 approximately whereas the net worth of a homeowner is over $95,000. Buying now, today, is a great decision.]

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Buying a home (or looking for one)? Then this video is for you. It will provide you with the two basic points of how you can assure that your offer is not over market value.

Overpaying For A Home

A quick note on this subject. Appraisals in this market have become increasingly unpredictable. Many of us (Realtors) have run into “issues” with our sales due to a “bad appraisal”. Usually, what that means is, an appraiser has come in and not provided an accurate summation of values in the surrounding neighborhood of the subject property (the sale property).

However, appraisals, accurately or inaccurately, will keep you from overpaying for a home.

For Sellers
Knowing what the value of your home is, before a buyer gets an appraisal, is vital to the successful completion of your home sale. That’s why it’s critical that you hire the best agent to give you the best professional advice on market value. Additionally, it’s also important to talk with a real estate agent who can provide you with critical analysis of how you can improve your home’s market value. This is absolutely critical.

For an appointment, please call me at (631)881-5959.

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Should You Sell Now?

Filed Under Sellers | Comments Off



I am often asked “Is it the right time to sell my home?” The answer to that question is based on what your families’ goals are. If you don’t need or want to move for a few years it might make sense to wait for the housing industry to recover and prices to appreciate. However, if you wish to move within the next six to eighteen months, it is probably better to sell sooner rather than later. Here are five reasons why:

Your House Will Get More Exposure Now Than the Winter
Housing sales usually level off in the summer and then regain momentum in September and October. The spring buyers’ market has passed. Don’t miss the early fall market. It has consistently outperformed the winter season.

Distressed Properties Will Impact Prices
Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) on the market will increase this fall and winter. This will put tremendous downward pressure on prices for at least the next 12-18 months. Get your home sold before they become your competition.

Mortgages Will Become More Difficult to Attain
Lending standards are continuing to tighten. There is legislation currently being considered that will make it even harder for buyers to qualify. Less demand will equate to lower prices.

It is the Perfect Time to Move-Up
With prices where they are and interest rates at all time lows, there may have never been a better time to move-up into your dream home. If you move into a more desirable home now, you will be in position to gain larger equity as prices eventually appreciate.

You Get to Move On with Your Life
Probably the most important reason to sell is so you can get on with your life. You are considering selling for a reason. Do not allow a less-than-stellar housing market prevent you from reaching your goals as an individual or as a family. Think about the reasons you are thinking about moving. Are these reasons really important to you? If you have to take less than you were originally hoping to get for your house, your family has a question to ask each other: Is the dollar difference in sales price worth putting off our plans? Only you and your family know the answer to that question.

(KCMblog)

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