Aug

13

Long Island Real Estate Market: Update, July 2009

Filed Under Sellers |


Share

So you’ve heard that the Long Island real estate market is improving. It is! The market has been making slow and consistent moves towards balance. Inventory continues to decline (somewhat) and sales are up (without a seasonal adjustment - remember we sell more in Spring).

If we look at June, 2009 numbers and compare them to July, we see some good points, and not so good points.
june-09-inventory-vs-sales.jpg

In June, the Long Island real estate market saw 32,934 homes for sale and 2,111 sales in the same month.

Now let’s take a look at July’s numbers and compare.

july-09-inventory-vs-sales.jpg

With a 15% increase in sales over June, the months of supply dropped dramatically, nearing the “magic number” of less than double-digit supply which would ultimately help stabalize the decline in prices. If you noticed I commented on the slide about July, 2008 which really shows us how far we’ve come in a year.

july-08-inventory-vs-sales.jpg

With over 37,000 homes for sale in July, 2008, that represents a very good decline in inventory (15 months to 13 months). Now just a quick note, “inventory” and the months of supply are simply an equation dividing homes available by the number of homes sold in a given month. Months of supply simply gives us an idea of how much more homes are for sale, than are selling.

From this slide, from July, 2008 to July 2009, we see something that’s not so great - only a 2 month decline in inventory. An entire year and only a 2 month decline in inventory. Not much has changed overall in the last 12 months.

This is another indicator that the Long Island real estate market has a long way to go toward ultimate recovery. I will define “ultimate recovery” as the following: Less than 9 months of supply. When that happens, a good amount of homes will be selling in comparison to the homes available. This will promote stability in the real estate market and will begin the long process of gaining back the equity values lost during the last 3 years (and the next 12 to 18 months most likely).

(c) Copyright 2009, www.tommcgiveron.com
By Thomas McGiveron, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson



Comments

Name (required)

Email (required)

Website

Speak your mind